Paid Pilot COGS And Margin Model¶

Date: 2026-05-19 Status: protected-preview worksheet Linear: TIN-1551

This page defines the repeatable cost model for the first TubeBrain paid research packet pilots. It complements the package in Paid Pilot Package and the operator checklist in Paid Pilot Operator Runbook.

The model is a quoting and go/no-go worksheet, not accounting truth. Replace the defaults with actual vendor, infra, and operator rates before using it for a customer quote that materially depends on those costs.

Objectives¶

Use these gates before quoting:

Gate	Target
Cash COGS before operator labor	<= 10% of pilot price
Managed STT vendor spend	<= 5% of pilot price unless buyer-approved
Loaded margin, Starter	>= 40%
Loaded margin, Standard	>= 50%
Loaded margin, Expanded	>= 55%

If a quote misses a gate, reduce source count, reduce hosted hours, disable or cap managed fallback, raise price, or move the work into a custom follow-on SOW.

Default Assumptions¶

The worksheet starts with conservative defaults:

Assumption	Default
Operator delivery cost	$125/hr
Hosted preview infra allocation	$0.50/hr
Managed STT fallback cost	$1.02/hr
CI/build fixed allocation	$25/pilot
Payment processing	3% of price
Starter delivery hours	6
Standard delivery hours	10
Expanded delivery hours	16

Managed STT defaults to the high end of the current fallback spike so the quote does not depend on the cheapest provider. The cost source and fallback policy live in the internal spike docs/spikes/2026-05-16-managed-stt-fallback-cost-model.md.

Run The Worksheet¶

Default no-managed-fallback model:

python3 scripts/pilot_cogs_model.py --band all

Worst-case included fallback-cap model:

python3 scripts/pilot_cogs_model.py --band all --fallback-hours included-cap

Custom quote example:

python3 scripts/pilot_cogs_model.py \
  --band Standard \
  --delivery-hours 12 \
  --hosted-hours 20 \
  --fallback-hours 10 \
  --managed-stt-cost-per-hour 0.45

The script prints a Markdown table with revenue, cost categories, gross margin, cash COGS percentage, managed STT percentage, and a pass/fail verdict.

Evidence Mapping¶

The quote worksheet and closeout packet should tie costs back to evidence:

Cost or margin input	Evidence
Package band and price	Approved quote or invoice
Hosted preview hours	Quote plus operator notes and usage counters
Managed STT hours	Usage events with stt_processed_ms, provider, fallback mode, and estimated cost
Stream time	Usage events with stream_active_ms when available
Support and delivery hours	Operator notes outside TubeBrain usage events
Account/key activity	/v1/admin/usage snapshot
Source count	Quote worksheet and evidence directory, not raw usage events

Usage events support manual audit, but they are not billing-grade storage. Broad SaaS pricing needs durable account storage, cross-replica aggregation, support cost attribution, deletion/export, and invoice reconciliation.